John Lettieri, President and CEO of Economic Innovation Group | Official Website
John Lettieri, President and CEO of Economic Innovation Group | Official Website
Among Vermont’s counties, Caledonia County and Orange County saw the largest increase in transfer dependency over the past 10 years, surging 3.1% from 2012.
Essex County followed with the second-largest increase in transfer dependency, increasing 2.9% from 27.8% in 2012 to 30.7% in 2022, and an overall increase of 17.5% from 1970’s 13.2% transfer dependency. This trend is reflected in per capita amounts, with residents of Essex County receiving an average of $13,920 in transfer income in 2022, up from $10,933 in 2012 and more than double the $2,280 recorded in 1970.
Additionally, Rutland County had the highest percentage of income derived from government transfers, at 32.6% in 2022, making it the county with the highest overall transfer dependency. Essex County and Orleans County followed closely behind, with transfer dependency rates of 30.7% and 29.9% in 2022, respectively.
Compared to 1970, Rutland County increased by 21.7%, while Essex County and Orleans County have increased by 17.5% and 19.2%, respectively, showing sustained reliance on government transfers. Residents in Rutland County received an average of $19,084 in transfers per capita, with Essex County and Orleans County close behind at $13,920 and $15,888, respectively.
For comparison, the statewide average was 20% in 2022, showing a higher dependency than the national average of 17.6%. On a per capita level, this translates to $12,623 per resident in 2022, compared to $11,542 nationwide.
Government transfer payments are non-repayable funds provided by federal, state, or local governments to support individuals in need. These payments aim to stabilize economic conditions and provide financial support during hardships. Key programs include Social Security transfers (retirement benefits), Medicare transfers (healthcare for seniors), Medicaid transfers (healthcare for low-income individuals), and income maintenance transfers (financial assistance for basic needs).
In Vermont, reliance on government transfers was just 9.7% (or $2,113 per capita in inflation-adjusted 2022 dollars) in 1970. This has since increased to 20% (or $12,623 per capita) in 2022, reflecting a total increase of 10.3% since 1970. This shift is largely influenced by increased healthcare costs, and economic transformations that have reshaped income sources across the U.S.
In 2022, the primary government transfer programs in Vermont included:
- Social Security: $4,647 (36.8% of total transfers)
- Medicare: $2,630 (20.8% of total transfers)
- Medicaid: $3,040 (24.1% of total transfers)
- Income Maintenance Programs: $1,103 (8.7% of total transfers)
With 21.4% of the population aged 65 and older, Vermont has a significant demand for programs like Social Security and Medicare. However, counties with higher poverty rates also show elevated Medicaid and income maintenance participation.
Government transfers have long been a modest financial safety net, historically comprising only a small fraction of Americans' income. However, since the 1970s—sometimes dubbed the “Great Transfer-mation”—dependency has surged from 8.2% (or $2,022 per capita in inflation-adjusted 2022 dollars) in 1970 to 17.6% (or $11,542 per capita) in 2022 nationwide. In Vermont, reliance on government transfers has similarly increased from 9.7% (or $2,113 per capita) in 1970 to 20% (or $12,623 per capita) in 2022, reflecting broader national trends.
According to the Economic Innovation Group’s analysis, these trends are not merely short-term responses to economic pressures but rather reflect a profound, long-term transformation in how government support is integrated into American life. The study illustrates that structural shifts—from rising healthcare expenses and demographic changes to stagnant wages—have significantly increased dependency on government transfers.
| County | Dependency on Transfers (%) | Change Since 2012 | Change Since 1970 | Per Capita Amount (2022) | Per Capita Change Since 2012 | Per Capita Change Since 1970 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Addison County | 16.9% | 1.9% | 7.7% | $10,489 | $2,239 | $8,624 |
| Bennington County | 22.6% | 1% | 12.3% | $13,590 | $2,035 | $11,173 |
| Caledonia County | 26.7% | 3.1% | 15.3% | $13,499 | $3,218 | $11,219 |
| Chittenden County | 13.9% | 0% | 6.3% | $9,808 | $1,152 | $8,060 |
| Essex County | 30.7% | 2.9% | 17.5% | $13,920 | $2,987 | $11,460 |
| Franklin County | 18.1% | 0.4% | 7% | $10,107 | $1,565 | $7,817 |
| Grand Isle County | 14.5% | 0.4% | 3.3% | $10,310 | $1,583 | $7,928 |
| Lamoille County | 17.4% | 0.4% | 7.9% | $11,153 | $1,904 | $9,171 |
| Orange County | 22.3% | 3.1% | 12.1% | $12,483 | $3,132 | $10,438 |
| Orleans County | 29.9% | 1.6% | 19.2% | $15,888 | $2,742 | $13,866 |
| Rutland County | 32.6% | 2.5% | 21.7% | $19,084 | $3,056 | $16,772 |
| Washington County | 19.8% | 0.1% | 9.8% | $13,686 | $2,091 | $11,479 |
| Windham County | 24.3% | 2.8% | 14.5% | $13,833 | $2,759 | $11,656 |
| Windsor County | 20.5% | 1.6% | 10.9% | $13,899 | $3,038 | $11,588 |
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