Small business optimism in Vermont and across the United States increased slightly in November, according to the latest National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB) Small Business Optimism Index. The index rose by 0.8 points to reach 99.0, remaining above its long-term average.
Six out of ten components of the index improved, while three declined and one stayed unchanged. The main factor behind the increase was a rise in expectations for higher real sales among small business owners. However, uncertainty also grew, with the Uncertainty Index climbing three points to 91, mainly due to more owners expressing doubts about capital expenditure plans over the next several months.
John Reynolds, NFIB Vermont State Director, commented on ongoing challenges: “The lack of qualified workers for open positions continues to be a drag on the Main Street economy in Vermont,” he said. “As we prepare for the new legislative session, it’s imperative that Vermont lawmakers focus on making the state more affordable for small businesses and their workers. Allowing more affordable health coverage options, reducing the property tax burden, and bringing down the cost of doing business should all be on the to-do list for 2026.”
Key findings from November include a significant jump in price increases reported by small business owners—the net percentage raising average selling prices rose by 13 points from October to a seasonally adjusted net 34%, marking both a record monthly increase and reaching levels not seen since March 2023. Labor quality remained a top concern; 21% cited it as their most important problem, although this was down six points from October.
Expectations for higher real sales volumes improved by nine points to a net 15%. Meanwhile, interest rates on short maturity loans dropped to an average of 7.9%, their lowest since May 2023.
Business health assessments were mixed: 11% described their business as excellent (down one point), while those rating conditions as good increased two points to 53%. Thirty percent rated conditions as fair (down three points), and five percent called them poor (up one point).
Supply chain disruptions affected nearly two-thirds of respondents—64% reported some impact in November, up four points from October.
Despite some positive trends such as increased hiring plans—a seasonally adjusted net 19% plan job creation in coming months—expectations for better overall business conditions fell by five points compared with October and have declined sharply since January.
Capital investment remains subdued; only half reported capital outlays in recent months and just one-fifth plan investments soon—a historically weak figure.
Inflation pressures persist: besides rising prices noted above, fifteen percent named inflation as their top challenge (up three points). Reports of higher compensation remained steady at a net seasonally adjusted rate of 26%.
Profit trends showed slight improvement but remained negative overall. Among those reporting lower profits, weaker sales were most commonly blamed; among those with higher profits, increased sales volume was cited most often.
Access to credit appeared relatively stable—only four percent found loans harder to obtain than before—and borrowing rates decreased slightly compared with previous months.
The survey is conducted monthly among randomly selected NFIB members nationwide and has tracked economic trends among small businesses since the early 1970s.
For more information about NFIB’s advocacy efforts or reports on small business trends nationwide visit nfib.com.